Architects report mixed fortunes

With Spain’s construction industry continuing to look positive, France and Italy seem to be doing less well, with Germany also slowing down, according to a survey of European architects.

The European Architectural Barometer for the third quarter of 2014, which is produced by Arch-Vision and is based on research among 1,600 architects in eight European countries, showed that Spain’s progress was indicated not only by the architects’ sentiment but also other market indicators show improvements.

It also found that the UK market was still improving, although at a slightly slower pace than expected in previous quarters.

It said sentiment within UK architectural firms was positive in the third quarter, while there was a strong order book and turnover development. It also found that 43% of the architects had experienced increase in their order book of more than 5%, and another 19% with 0 to 5% growth.

However, it warned that the last three quarters clearly showed a number of architects who expected an empty order book in the next 12 months – a figure of around 40%.

Positive development

Arch-vision said that from the third quarter of 2010 onwards, there had been a steady positive development among German architects. In the third quarter this year, both German order book and turnover development were positive again but with small changes compared to the results of the previous quarters.

It found 26% of the architects experienced growth in their order book, which is one of the lowest results since the start of the European Architectural Barometer.

In the third quarter, only 4% of the architectural firms expected to see an empty order book in the next 12 months, but other indicators could cause concern, it said.

The French construction sector is not showing improvement, said Arch-Vision. There are more French architects experiencing a decreasing order book – more than 40% in the past year – than an increasing order book – approximately 20% each quarter. It said the difference this quarter was the largest of recent years.

Together with the first quarter of 2013, the falls in the order book and turnover development in the third quarter of 2014 were the biggest since Arch-Vision started measuring.

Predictions confirmed

Arch-Vision said its predictions from the first quarter of 2014 for Spain were being confirmed in the following two quarters. The ongoing downward slope has come to an end, and results have been positive for three quarters in a row as more architects reported an increasing order book - at least than 30% or more every quarter

After some very bad quarter results in 2013, Italian architects experienced drops in the order book and turnover development in 2014 as well, although not as bad as in 2013.

In comparison to 2013, Arch-Vision said it saw more Italian architects noticing an increase in their order book - a small number compared to those who saw their order book declining. This quarter, 50% of Italian architects reported negative developments in their order book and only 11% saw positive developments.

For the fourth quarter in a row, the Dutch order book and turnover development were positive again. This is a continuation of the improvement seen in previous quarters, although the turnover development is the lowest of all last four quarters. The number of those architects experiencing improvements (43%) is higher than the number of those with declining order books (23%), something that has lasted for a year now.

Arch-Vision said that currently, 22% expected an empty order book within the coming 12 months, which was more pessimistic than in the first quarter (19%).

The first quarter of 2013 showed a stable positive development in the order books of Belgian architects.

In the first quarter of 2014, however, this development seemed to be more neutral, but the following two quarters returned to the figures seen in 2013. More architects reported third quarter increasing order books rather than decreasing, with more than a third of the architects indicating that their order book remained the same. Only 9% of the Belgian architects expect an empty order book.

After negative order book developments in 2013, in 2014 the number of the Polish architects that experienced their order book growing was higher than the number who saw declining order books. This quarter saw a big increase in architects who expect their order book to be empty in the next 12 months (24%).